Australia (Commonwealth Union)_ Education Minister Jason Clare has announced a transformative policy that promises to significantly alter the landscape of international education in Australia. Accordingly, starting 2025, Australian universities, TAFEs, and vocational colleges will face new caps on the number of international students they can enroll. This policy marks a departure from traditional practices and could set a new benchmark in government regulation of international education.
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A complex new framework
The forthcoming policy introduces a complex framework for managing international student numbers. Unlike simpler regulatory approaches, this system includes varied caps for different groups of students and applies different formulas to distinct institutions. The details are still emerging, and it will take time for institutions to fully understand and adapt to the new rules. However, it is evident that Australia is adopting a highly bureaucratic approach, more intricate than those seen in the United Kingdom and Canada.
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International comparisons: The UK and Canada
For decades, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada have been prominent destinations for international students. These countries have employed a dual approach to managing international education: focusing on the quality of education provided and implementing visa regulations that govern student entry, work rights, and stay duration. This method has yielded impressive results, with Australia experiencing an average annual growth of around 5% in international student numbers since 2005. However, the post-pandemic surge in international student numbers has prompted all three countries to reconsider their strategies. As such, governments became concerned about the rapid influx of new students, leading to various policy adjustments.
Canada’s response
In Canada, the international student population surged by approximately 30% annually for two consecutive years following the pandemic, reaching over one million by 2023. To address this rapid increase, the Canadian government announced a 35% cap on new study permits for vocational and undergraduate programs starting in 2024. This cap is allocated based on provincial populations, which is expected to impact urban centers like the Greater Toronto Area significantly while affecting other regions less.
The United Kingdom’s approach
Similarly, the UK saw its international student numbers reach a historic high of over 750,000, driven primarily by increases from non-EU countries. In response, the UK government implemented restrictions that prevent international students from bringing their partners and children with them. This policy change has already led to a 16% decline in student visa applications in the year leading up to July 2024.
Australia’s new direction
Australia’s response to the international student surge has been marked by attempts to manage student numbers through visa restrictions, particularly impacting students from India and low-income countries. However, this approach, embodied in Ministerial Direction 107, disproportionately affected certain demographics and institutions, undermining the Department of Education’s goal of diversifying the student population and provider base. The new policy, set to take effect in 2025, represents a significant shift. It will impose quotas on new international students for each institution.
Accordingly, large, research-intensive universities, particularly those in Sydney and Melbourne, will face the most substantial reductions. Their quotas will be set midway between their 2019 and 2023 enrollment figures. Conversely, universities with fewer international students will have their quotas aligned with 2023 levels. Private tertiary providers are expected to experience significant reductions as well. Additionally, the primary beneficiaries of this policy will be public universities and TAFEs with currently lower international student enrollments. The new cap system will make it more challenging for international students to gain entry to major institutions and private colleges, particularly for lower-cost vocational programs.
Looking ahead
The future beyond 2025 remains uncertain and will depend on negotiations between the soon-to-be-established Australian Tertiary Education Commission and individual providers. What is clear, however, is that Australia’s approach is set to be the most restrictive and complex among its international education peers. This radical shift could redefine Australia’s role in the global education sector and set a new precedent in government regulation of international student enrolments. As institutions and students navigate these changes, the broader impact on Australia’s reputation as a leading destination for international education will become increasingly evident.
