Bangladesh (Commonwealth Union)_ As per the annual economic outlook presented by the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI), Bangladesh is anticipated to emerge as the second-fastest-growing economy among 46 nations in the coming year. Projections indicate that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is poised to expand by 6.3 percent in 2024. In comparison, India’s growth is forecasted at 6.4 percent, securing the highest position among the countries surveyed. Vietnam follows closely in the third slot, with a projected growth rate of 6.2 percent.
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The MEI recently unveiled its comprehensive report titled “Economic Outlook: Balancing Prices & Priorities” for the upcoming year, elucidating critical factors that will shape global growth. It is noteworthy that the MEI’s estimate is marginally below the growth target set by the Bangladesh government for the fiscal year 2023-2024, which stands at 7.5 percent. Earlier predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are pegged at 6 percent and 5.6 percent GDP growth, respectively, for the same period. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, Bangladesh’s economy demonstrated a growth rate of 6.03 percent, as per official state data.
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The MEI’s outlook further indicates that the Philippines is expected to witness the fourth-highest GDP growth at 5.6 percent, followed by Indonesia at 5.1 percent. Mainland China and Malaysia are projected to experience GDP growth rates of 4.6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. According to the report, the Asia Pacific region is characterized by a nuanced economic landscape with varied growth trajectories. A macro-level perspective anticipates modest growth, closely aligned with 2023 levels, as economies stabilize and pivotal growth drivers such as exports and tourism approach pre-pandemic norms.
The MEI discerns a slight upward trend in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea, while Australia, the Chinese Mainland, Japan, and New Zealand are expected to witness economic deceleration. According to the MEI, India and Indonesia are projected to maintain stability at 2023 levels. Concurrently, Mastercard’s projections for Bangladesh indicate a consumer price inflation of 7.3 percent in 2024, ranking it as the fourth-highest among 48 countries and the highest among South Asian nations. Bangladesh had initially set a 6 percent inflation target for 2023-24, while the IMF forecasted a slightly higher figure at 7.25 percent.
In a broader context, the MEI forecasts Argentina to experience the highest inflation at 156.9 percent, followed by Turkey at 53.3 percent and Egypt at 24.9 percent. Sri Lanka’s inflation is predicted to stand at 6.9 percent, ranking as the fifth-highest globally and the second-highest in South Asia. India, in contrast, is expected to register a 4.5 percent inflation rate in 2024. Looking ahead, the MEI anticipates increased discretionary spending across the Asia Pacific region in 2024, particularly on items such as travel and entertainment, as the economic repercussions of the pandemic wane.
David Mann, Mastercard’s Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, notes that 2024 is poised to be a year of recalibration, with consumers expressing a continued eagerness to engage in travel and dining experiences. He noted that there is a forecasted shift in consumer spending towards goods in 2024, as opposed to the previous trend that prioritized services in the aftermath of the pandemic. This shift is expected to revitalize the Asia Pacific manufacturing sector, aligning its performance more closely with the services sector, which experienced a surge in 2023 while manufacturing lagged.
