(Commonwealth India) The colder weather that has settled over India’s wheat-growing regions in March, following fresh snowfall in the mountainous areas, may counterbalance the impacts of the warmer-than-usual February. This shift in weather conditions is beneficial for the country’s wheat crop, which is typically vulnerable to higher temperatures. India’s wheat production in 2025 raised concerns due to an unusually warm February, the hottest February on record in 125 years. Since wheat is a winter crop, it struggles to thrive under elevated temperatures, particularly during its growing stages.
Earlier forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had indicated that maximum and minimum temperatures across most parts of the country would be above normal from March through April 2025, which caused apprehension about the potential for lower wheat yields. However, the recent snowfall in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir has caused a noticeable decline in temperatures in March compared to the previous month. This cooling trend is considered a positive development for wheat production, as it mitigates some of the temperature stress caused by the warmth in February.
Siraj Hussain, a former agriculture secretary, commented that the forecast for a warmer summer in 2025 is unlikely to significantly affect the wheat crop. He stressed that the key factor for the wheat yield is the temperatures experienced during February and March. Hussain also pointed out that the government’s wheat stock is expected to be higher than the previous year by April, due to a combination of factors, including higher acreage under cultivation and favorable weather conditions in March. According to available government data, wheat production in 2024 did not experience a significant decline compared to the previous year, despite concerns about climate and temperature fluctuations.
The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, on March 3, also echoed optimism for the 2025 wheat harvest, anticipating better production figures than the previous year. The federation attributed this improvement to the expanded acreage under wheat cultivation, which has risen to 328 million hectares for the 2024-25 crop year (from July to June). This expansion is expected to result in an 8.2% increase in wheat production compared to the previous year, further bolstering expectations for a stronger crop.
In terms of government procurement, however, the situation has been less favorable. For the 2023-24 marketing season, the government’s wheat procurement fell short of its target. The procurement totaled only 26.1 million tons, significantly below the set target of 34.2 million tons. This shortfall was a continuation of the downward trend observed in the previous year when, during the 2022-23 rabi marketing season, procurement reached only 18.7 million tons against a target of 44.4 million tons. For the upcoming 2024-25 procurement season, which begins in April with the new wheat harvest, the government has set a lower procurement target of 31 million tons, signaling a more cautious approach in response to the challenges faced in recent years.
With production and procurement numbers not meeting expectations, India had been forced to implement a wheat export ban in 2022 to ensure sufficient domestic supply. This decision was driven by the reduced buffer stocks held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI), which in turn affected the government’s ability to manage price regulation effectively. This export ban and the subsequent domestic challenges highlighted the fragility of the country’s wheat security and the importance of a reliable and consistent harvest.
India’s wheat-growing regions primarily include Uttar Pradesh, which is the largest producer, followed by Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. These areas have seen various conditions recently, and while the forecast for 2025 wheat production looks more optimistic with larger acreage and cooler March temperatures, the situation remains delicate. How the crop responds to these fluctuating conditions, along with government intervention in procurement, will ultimately determine the wheat market and food security in the coming year.
