Commonwealth_ As Canada approaches its federal election on April 28, 2025, recent polling data indicates a tightening race between Prime Minister Mark Carney‘s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre‘s Conservatives. While the Liberals continue to lead, the Conservatives have been steadily gaining momentum, narrowing the gap in what is shaping up to be a highly competitive campaign.
According to a recent national poll, the Liberals are currently polling at 42% support, a slight decline compared to previous weeks. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have climbed to 36%, gaining two points and closing the gap significantly. The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois holds 6% nationally. These numbers suggest that voter preferences are shifting as the campaign unfolds and critical policy issues take center stage.
The changing dynamics come in the wake of Mark Carney’s rise to leadership. Earlier this year, Carney took over from Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister. With a strong background in economics, having served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Carney entered the political spotlight with considerable public interest and initially helped rejuvenate Liberal support. However, the current state of the national economy has been a key concern among the public.
The election landscape has been further complicated by escalating trade tensions with the United States. The recent imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian automotive imports by U.S. President Donald Trump has thrust foreign policy and economic sovereignty into the forefront of the Canadian political discourse. While Carney has sought to present himself as the candidate most capable of navigating these external pressures through diplomacy and experience, his opponents argue that his approach is too closely aligned with the policies of the previous Trudeau government.
Poilievre and the Conservatives have seized the opportunity to push a domestic agenda focused on affordability, crime prevention, drug control, and a return to what they describe as common-sense policies. Calling the past ten years under Liberal leadership a “lost decade,” Poilievre is appealing to Canadians who feel left behind by rapid economic and social changes. His platform promotes a tougher stance on law and order, tax relief for middle-income families, and a promise to defend Canadian industries more aggressively on the international stage.
With less than two weeks remaining before the election, the upcoming leaders’ debates are expected to play a pivotal role in influencing undecided voters. Both parties are intensifying their efforts to gain ground in key battleground provinces such as Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, where shifts in support could determine the outcome of the election. The stakes are significant not only for the two leading parties, but also for the future trajectory of Canadian governance. The result will impact not only domestic policy decisions in areas like healthcare, housing, and climate change but also Canada’s broader role on the global stage, particularly in the context of trade, defense, and environmental diplomacy.
All eyes are focused on how Canadians will react to the competing visions presented as the campaign enters its final phase. The narrowing polls suggest a photo finish is possible, adding intensity and uncertainty to an already historic race.
