Syrian future appears bleak as extremists claim another city

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Global (Commonwealth Union)

Syrian rebels have seized the dominant city of Hama, signifying a momentous victory in their rapid push across northern Syria. The most dramatic since the Syrian civil war erupted 13 years ago, the rebel advance poses a severe blow to President Bashar al-Assad as well as his remaining allies, Russia and Iran.

Hama’s fall underscores the deteriorating control of Assad’s forces in the north, amplified by the weakening of key allied militias such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which recently suffered devastating losses in its conflict with Israel. This shift in dynamics on the battlefield is the most pronounced since frontlines largely froze in 2020.

The Syrian military announced its withdrawal from Hama, expressing the need to protect civilians and avoid urban combat. Rebels quickly entered the city, parading through its streets amidst celebratory gunfire, as television footage depicted detainees being released from the city’s prison and civilians greeting insurgents in the streets.

The capture of Hama, a pivotal one among Syrian cities linking northern Syria to the capital, Damascus, marks a strategic turning point, with rebel factions having signaled intentions to push southward toward Homs, a city critical to controlling routes connecting Damascus with Assad’s coastal strongholds. An advance on Homs could further isolate Damascus and jeopardize Assad’s regime.

The leader of the main insurgent group, Abu Mohammed al-Golani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared full control of Hama and issued a warning to Iraqi militias backing Assad to stay out of Syria’s conflict. HTS, a leading rebel force with a controversial history as a former al-Qaeda affiliate, continues to secure its power in recently captured territories, including Aleppo.

Golani referenced Hama’s history of rebellion, invoking the 1982 massacre under Hafez al-Assad, which left over 10,000 dead. He vowed not to exact revenge but called for unity among Syria’s diverse religious communities. However, fear remains widespread, especially among minority groups in towns like Muhrada and Salamiya, where some have resisted insurgent control.

The United Nations has expressed deep concern over the humanitarian toll, reporting 280,000 people displaced in recent fighting. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for immediate humanitarian access and a renewed political process to end Syria’s prolonged conflict.

While Turkey has denied direct involvement, its role in the Middle Eastern conflict remains pivotal. Rebel gains may align with Ankara’s goal of enabling Syrian refugees to return, potentially reforming the future of northern Syria and the broader region.

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