By The Bald Eagle
Nashville, Tennessee (CWBN)_ The United states has a population of 330 million, the world’s second largest democracy and the most powerful country on Earth, economically and militarily.
But incredibly, a small collection of 538 men and women called the ‘Electoral College’ gather in Washington DC and cast their votes for whom they believe should be the next President. Just 538, to decide the fate of this most powerful nation that regularly shapes human history. So whichever candidate has more than 270 of these voters will win.
Just 538 voters
In theory, these 538 representatives of the individual 50 states and the District of Columbia are expected to cast their ballots for the candidate whom the population of 245 mil registered voters in their respective states voted for a few days prior, in what the world knows as the US Presidential Election, which this year falls on November 3. In practice, however, there’s actually little or nothing to stop these members of the Electoral College from voting any way they want. In fact, in every election, several vote against the mandate of their states’ voters, on both sides of the political divide.
Inequality of States – Not a Straight Election
If one assumes that the Electoral College Voters actually vote as their state’s populations expect them to, the political inequality of different states is also a point of contention. States with small populations have a far greater say, in terms of their population numbers, than large states. Thus, a voter in the most populous states such as California, New York or Illinois have far less influence than those in Montana or North Dakota, which have sparse populations.
This is what enabled Donald Trump to win in 2016, with 304 Electoral College Votes to 227 for Hilary Clinton, despite polling an astonishing near 3 million votes less than Clinton.
In contrast, in India, the world’s largest democracy, it’s relatively simple: Gather more votes from the entire population and you win. None of this ‘which state are you from?’ business. The voter in rural Assam is equal to the voter in downtown Mumbai.
How Many People Vote?
Traditionally, voter turnout is incredibly low by global standards, between 50%-60%. The last time it crossed 60% was in 1968. In 2016 it was 55.5%. If that trend holds, only about 140 million people will vote.
In contrast, 611 million people voted in the 2019 Indian General Election.
Which States Vote for Whom?
Many states traditionally vote for a particular party and ideology. Conservative states vote for Republicans, while states with more liberal outlooks vote for Democrats. In 2020, the overwhelmingly Republican states, 20 of them, are expected to be Alaska (3 Electoral College Votes), South Carolina (9), West Virginia (5), Indiana (11), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (6), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (7), Nebraska (5), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Utah (6) and Kansas (6). The 15 states that are expected to vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate are Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Illinois (20), New Mexico (5), Connecticut (7), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), Vermont (3), Maine (4) and Hawaii (4). The District of Columbia (3), where the capital is located, also votes overwhelmingly for the Democratic party.
Then there are 3 states that are highly likely to vote Republican – Texas (38), Ohio (18) and Iowa (6); and 5 others that are highly likely to vote Democratic – Virginia (13), Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10) and New Hampshire (4).
Expected Total Votes
The expected number of Electoral College Votes, when one tallies the states that are ‘overwhelming’ and ‘highly likely’, would give Republican President Donald Trump 188 and Democratic Challenger Joe Biden 233.
Battleground States needed to Win
Seven crucial ‘battleground states’ control 117 Electoral College Votes – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Arizona (11), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Georgia (16), and Wisconsin (10). All 7 were won by Trump by in 2016, but polls show that he has lost ground in all of them and the edge is now believed to be with Biden.
Trump needs 82 votes from at least 5 of these; Biden needs just 37 votes from three or possibly 4.
Edited by Chathushka Perera
