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Understanding the Hydrogen Powered Economy and its sticking points.

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By Kavinda Ratnapala

The promise of hydrogen in discussions of industrial transport is not new. Going beyond a mere promise, its first use can be traced back to the late 19th century, when designers of blimps, made hydrogen the gas of choice used to inflate balloons enabling the dawn of commercial aviation. It is estimated that by 2030 the hydrogen economy could be worth between $650bn and $800bn. It is estimated that if hydrogen is to propel humanity into a sustainable zero-emissions future the annual production of “Green Hydrogen” would have to increase more than sevenfold by 2050. The active term here being green, which this article will tackle in detail.

To understand the hydrogen economy this article will explore why hydrogen though an emission-free fuel in form is functionally emissions-intensive in its production. Next, some of the outstanding questions that hydrogen advocates have as of yet been unable to meaningfully respond to. But first, the article will explore the two main hydrogen propulsion technologies namely its use as a fuel-cell and an internal combustion fuel. For this will ground the state of hydrogen-related investments and also provide a clear picture of the direction in which hydrogen as a propulsion technology is heading.

The Forms of Hydrogen Propulsion

Hydrogen as a proof of concept has already been demonstrated in the skies, and its land transport application has progressed to the point that the Toyota Mira and the Hyundai Nexo are currently being mass-produced. At sea, there have been several crafts ranging from boats to ships that have firmly established hydrogen’s use case albite with some limitations. As such, it is important to note that while hydrogen’s viability is beyond reasonable doubt; the term hydrogen powered, refers to two distinct but related technologies.

The first is the hydrogen internal combustion engine which works using the same mechanics as a classic internal combustion engine with liquid hydrogen used in place of fossil fuels. This has been a favoured option for commercial fleet operators seeking a low-cost emission reduction solution as engines can be retrofitted for diesel and hydrogen’s dual-combustion.  Enabling fleets to stay active during periods of hydrogen shortfall and to bridge the gap while hydrogen refuelling infrastructure is built. While this method is technically free of any greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, heat generated in the engine has shown to produce other harmful emissions though these are negligible. An example of a cutting-edge innovation in this space has been the hydrogen-powered V8 engine developed in tandem by Toyota and Yamaha.

The second and truly emissions-free propulsion technology is the hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (HFCEV). It suffices to state that the fuel cell is truly void of emissions as it relies on a chemical reaction within the fuel cell to produce electricity which is stored in a battery and discharged on demand. It is important to note that alongside the mentioned legacy car makers consequential progress is being made across the board by the likes of Rolls-Royce and Stellantis which offer a unique value proposition of their own.

Sourcing Hydrogen: The primary impediment

While hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, the only way to produce fit for purpose hydrogen is through a range of energy-intensive industrial processes. It is the source of energy used in this industrial process which determines the environmental impact of the hydrogen that is created which in turn is categorized as either: grey, blue or green hydrogen

Grey Hydrogen is produced using fossil fuels. As of 2019, 96% of hydrogen could be categorized as grey, as it was produced via carbon-intensive processes, namely: Steam Methane Reforming (SRM) and Coal Gasification. Not only is hydrogen produced this way carbon intensive but it is also susceptible to emissions via transportation and production processes including gas well leaks and purposeful emissions such as venting. It is estimated that 3.5% of the natural gas drilled, leaks into the atmosphere with a majority of additives in natural gas containing large amounts of hydrocarbons.

Blue Hydrogen’s difference from its Grey counterpart lies in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies that are deployed to sequester the GHG emissions during production. However, when CCS is powered by fossil fuels, mostly liquid natural gas (LNG), it is reported to have a worse environmental impact than Grey Hydrogen costing far more as well. According to the latest research, Blue Hydrogen’s GHG footprint is said to be 60% more than burning diesel oil and 20% more than burning natural gas or coal for heat. As such, due to emissions which outstrip classical fossil fuel use, Blue Hydrogen seems to be an instant of humanity taking one step forward to slip two steps back, suggesting Blue Hydrogen has no place in a carbon-free future.

Green Hydrogen, the gold standard in hydrogen production, is made without the use of fossil fuels. At present, it is economically unviable due to the high costs associated with the quantities of energy required. Green Hydrogen is produced using renewable energy sources to electrolyze water to extract the hydrogen from the coupled oxygen atom, which is consequential, as it is the cleanest production method negating the use of polluting chemicals. It is the use of Green -Clean- Hydrogen that can propel hydrogen centred emissions reduction strategies, across geographies and industries, toward the long-awaited hydrogen based society.

Some Outstanding and Related Impediments

While the prospects for hydrogen’s use case are dampened by issues relating to the sourcing of the fuel. There remain other unresolved questions which may throw more spanners into the works, should adequate research and care not be taken to better understand and mitigate the undermentioned concerns.

Vested Interests

2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill devoted $8 bn to create regional hydrogen hubs across the USA. While this is a marked improvement over continued investments in fossil fuels. What is concerning is that the champions of this realignment have been none other than the natural gas industry which has heavily promoted hydrogen as a reliable, next-generation fuel which could be transported using natural gas pipelines and related infrastructure.

To put these investments in context, Europe’s largest hydrogen electrolysis plant is operated by Royal Dutch Shell; while doves of energy transition may identify this as an example of fossil fuel companies’ systemic reorientation towards a low carbon future. The company’s failure to provide concrete divestment timelines and continuously engaging in the oil and gas industry, going so far as to purchase Russian fossil fuels after the invasion of Ukraine had begun, makes it easy to question their sincerity and the extent of their commitments to hydrogen. Moreover, Royal Dutch Shell is far from being the only oil and gas company investing along these lines, leading to environmental groups questioning if hydrogen investments are nothing more than the newest era of entrenched fossil fuel interests.   

Atmospheric Impacts

According to studies conducted in Ireland and Australia; there has been a 4% increase in hydrogen readings over the past 25 years with no explanation for the rise. This is concerning as any significant change to the content of the atmosphere is bound to have consequences. Moreover, hydrogen is a short-lived indirect greenhouse gas whose atmospheric impacts along with its total leakage levels, though presently studied, remain unknown; making uncertain the near to medium-term impacts of a hydrogen based society. However, what is widely accepted is that the rate of leakage from any hydrogen energy system -encompassing production, distribution, storage and utilization- must be carefully controlled for it is the rate of leakage which determines the nature and extent of the warming.

Water Availability

The global demand for freshwater is expected to rise by a projected 40% across the board by the middle of the century compared to the year 2000. As such, building an economy that is fueled in part by Green Hydrogen will require large amounts of ultrapure freshwater for the electrolyzers. Therefore, it is evident that the demand for freshwater is going to increase many folds under a net-zero transition, while a perpetual state of freshwater scarcity prevails. Experiments are underway to assess the viability of using seawater for electrolysis, however, they are not expected to be commercially applicable anytime soon. What is most concerning is that even discussions by governments have failed to communicate how this demand for ultra-pure freshwater is going to be sustainably met, with the focus of the conversation on the cost factor relating to desalinating and filtering water.

What Next?

The purpose of this article was to holistically understand the developments and hurdles in attaining a hydrogen centred economy. While catchphrases such as “harnessing the fuel of stars” and, “it being the most abundant element in the universe” have helped to embed hydrogen’s use case firmly into the public consciousness. In actuality, hydrogen’s use has shown to be anything but straightforward. It is clear, at present, that the majority of hydrogen on the markets have been sourced via fossil fuel centred extraction process and supply chains. As such, gravely limiting any claims to emissions reduction. However, should the investments and limitations be tackled strategically it is very likely that come 2050 the majority of the world’s energy requirements both on and off the grid could be provided through hydrogen in one form or another.

For an account of hydrogen’s use in the shipping industry see here

Kavinda Ratnapala has worked in a range of Corporate and Not for Profit roles from which he ideates and writes in the Sustainability and Governance space whilst occasionally dabbling in geopolitics of interest. He holds a Masters in Environment and Sustainability with a Bachelors in International Relations.

You can email the author at kavindareads@gmail.com or find him on Twitter under the handle @kavinda937

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