From a little more than five children per woman in the 1950s to about 2.3 today, global fertility has drastically decreased, falling below the replacement threshold of 2.1 in more than half of all nations.
Pronatalist initiatives have been sparked by the concern over “population collapse”, around the globe. The Real Fertility Crisis, a groundbreaking UNFPA State of World Population 2025 report published last month, reframes the issue as being less about a decline in the desire to have children and more about a decline in reproductive agency or the capacity to freely choose whether, when, and with whom to have children.
Desire versus Reality
In a survey conducted in14 countries, including high-income and developing economies, nearly 20% of reproductive-age adults indicated that they will not have as many children as they would like. The disparity is especially noticeable in India where thirty percent of respondents reported that they have had fewer children than they had intended as a result of obstacles such as employment insecurity, housing costs and contraceptive access. Forty percent of individuals over the age of fifty worldwide acknowledged that they did not attain their desired family size.
Breaking down the barriers
UNFPA offers a comprehensive, rights-based plan aimed at regaining reproductive agency in order to tackle this issue. Firstly, UNFPA points out that financial stability is essential which will guarantee stable employment, affordable housing and livable wages. The decision to have children becomes viable when one’s financial basis is solid. It also highlights that adequate reproductive healthcare, including safe abortion, fertility treatments, family support services and contraception, is equally important. Fertility goals remain unattainable without complete access to the above.
According to UNFPA, caregiving should be shared and this should be encouraged. It is important to implement laws that enable parents to take equal amount of leave, make childcare easily accessible and launch initiatives that challenge preconceptions of gender role. Women are less burdened and family formation is better facilitated when men share household and caregiving duties. Individuals must also have optimism regarding the future, the Agency points out. The world should be a reliable place to raise children with climate action, decreased inequality and improved infrastructure.
The other method is to promote family policies that are inclusive. Legal and social structures should support various family models, including single parents, LGBTQ+ couples and multigenerational households. Finally the decisions families make must to be based on freedom and rights rather than force. The UNFPA cautions against fertility targets and baby bonuses, pointing out that they can violate rights or have unintended consequences. Governments should instead consider, “What do people need to form the families they genuinely want?” rather than, “How do we make people have more children?”
Country Spotlights: Commonwealth Case Studies
India
In 2025, India’s total fertility rate fell to 1.9, much below the replacement threshold of 2.1. From about 5 per woman in 1970, fertility has decreased to about two which is a result of reproductive healthcare and education advancements seen in the recent years. However, disparities still exist as 30 per cent of adult Indians have not had the number of children they had hoped for, and 36 per cent have become pregnant against their will. The significant differences between states, for instance from Bihar and Meghalaya (TFR >3.0) to Kerala and Delhi (TFR ~1.57–1.80), highlights regional differences in social dynamics and access.
Canada
Canada currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the OECD which is at about 1.26. In 2025, its crude birth rate fell to about 9.94 births per 1,000 people. Since the early 1970s, mothers in Canada have been below the replacement rate. Experts highlight the difficulties faced by women in the workforce, the high cost of housing and the scarcity of childcare as reasons for this downfall. TFR estimates of approximately 1.05 are reported by provinces such as British Columbia, indicating severe population distress.
United Kingdom
The TFR in England and Wales is 1.44, the lowest since 2023. Many young individuals desire children but put them off because of daycare costs, job disruptions and uncertain housing. According to analysts, tax benefits or baby bonuses by themselves won’t be enough. Instead, flexible workplaces, affordable daycare, housing help and parental leave equity (paternities) are needed.
Australia
Australia is predicted to follow similar trends, reaching a TFR of 1.4 in 2024–2025. The cost of living and childcare expenses are the main worries of potential parents, even with previous baby bonuses given. Although experts caution that this ignores fundamental agency issues like care infrastructure and long-term economic security, political consensus favours immigration over fertility incentives.
Why Agency Matters Beyond Numbers
When reproductive agency declines, both people and societies suffer. In terms of demographics, low fertility results in ageing populations, declining labour forces and increased strain on healthcare and pension systems. If family formation compromises gender equality in the workplace, nations run the danger of missing out on women’s talent. Diminished agency in society leads to coercive policy responses, frustration and weakened trust in institutions.
UNFPA affirms that sustainable fertility support comes from investment, participation, equality and choice and not from pressure. When money is under control, healthcare is available, houses are safe, caregiving is shared and the future is promising, empowered families are born.
A New Paradigm in Demographic Policy
The UNFPA’s 2025 study shifts the narrative surrounding dropping birth rates, casting it not as a demographic inevitability, but as an urgent urgency to restore reproductive agency. Instead of increasing birth rates, countries like India, Canada, the UK and Australia face the shared problem of empowering their citizens to fulfil their family dreams.
Coordination of housing changes, labour safeguards, childcare systems, inclusive rights and environmental planning is necessary to translate these ideas into policy. How to create the conditions necessary for desired fertility and happy families is the question currently the world and its people are facing, not how to increase fertility.
