Bangladesh (Commonwealth Union)_ Bangladesh has expressed deep concern over the future of its water-sharing arrangements with India following New Delhi’s announcement of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. The move, which comes in the wake of a deadly terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, has not only escalated tensions between India and Pakistan but has also sent ripples of unease across South Asia, particularly in Dhaka. Bangladesh, which shares 54 transboundary rivers with India, fears that New Delhi’s latest decision could set a troubling precedent, raising questions about the sanctity and longevity of existing bilateral water-sharing agreements, especially the Ganga Water Treaty, which is up for renewal in 2026.
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India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, one of the region’s most durable water-sharing accords signed in 1960, has generated widespread concern about whether water is being weaponized in regional geopolitics. Although the treaty with Pakistan remains technically in effect, the political messaging around its suspension is clear and has stirred anxiety among India’s other riparian neighbors. The Ganga Water Treaty, signed in 1996 between then Indian Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, guarantees minimum water flow to Bangladesh during dry seasons. Set to expire in 2026 after its 30-year term, the treaty’s renewal is now clouded by recent developments. On March 6, 2025, Indian and Bangladeshi technical delegations convened in Kolkata under the Joint Rivers Commission to begin discussions on its renewal. As part of the engagement, the Bangladeshi side visited Farakka to monitor operations at a joint observation station.
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However, Dhaka now fears that India’s decision regarding Pakistan could signal a shift in its broader water diplomacy strategy, potentially undermining future cooperation on other contentious river water issues, including the long-pending Teesta Water Sharing Agreement. Experts warn that India’s recent actions may erode Bangladesh’s confidence in India’s commitments. “India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could cast doubts on its commitment to water-sharing with Bangladesh,” said Nutan Manmohan, a regional water expert. “With the Ganga Treaty up for renewal next year, this development sends an unsettling signal.” Uttam Sinha, a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), echoed these concerns. He stated, “India has traditionally respected water-sharing arrangements with its lower riparian neighbours. However, the success of future negotiations will depend heavily on the prevailing political climate.”
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Furthermore, the geopolitical context adds further complexity. Diplomatic relations between India and Bangladesh have recently come under strain following remarks by Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s interim chief adviser, advocating for increased Chinese involvement in India’s sensitive Northeast. In response, India revoked Bangladesh’s transshipment facility for export cargo effective April 8, 2025. The move was seen as a direct response to Bangladesh’s growing strategic alignment with China, including plans to revive the Lalmonirhat air base near the Siliguri Corridor. Observers note that water security in South Asia has become increasingly intertwined with political and strategic considerations. Shared rivers are not only lifelines for agriculture and drinking water but also vital for energy production and industry. Any disruption in river flow can have profound consequences, including economic dislocation, political instability, and potential regional conflict.
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While the Indus Waters Treaty governs the use of six major rivers between India and Pakistan, the implications of India’s suspension resonate far beyond the Indus Basin. Bangladesh and Nepal, both lower riparian states, are now evaluating the future of their water-sharing mechanisms with India. Water cooperation in the region has long been championed to foster regional integration and economic development. However, recent developments have led to calls for greater transparency, binding dispute resolution mechanisms, and a move away from unilateral actions. Despite the growing mistrust, both India and Bangladesh have continued to engage in technical-level talks. The 86th meeting of the Joint Committee of Technical Experts, held in March, covered not only the Ganga Water Treaty but also discussions on the Teesta and Feni rivers, signaling that dialogue remains active.
India has reiterated its willingness to work with Bangladesh’s elected government, and many analysts hope that the current political transition in Dhaka will soon pave the way for more stable bilateral relations. However, until a formal consensus on the Ganga Water Treaty renewal is reached, uncertainty will likely persist. As water becomes an increasingly securitized resource in South Asia, regional actors are being urged to prioritize cooperation over confrontation. Sustainable and equitable river water sharing is crucial for the livelihoods of millions and the ecological balance of the subcontinent. As the 2026 deadline approaches, everyone’s attention is focused on how India and Bangladesh manage this pivotal moment in their mutual hydrological history.
