Mark Carney Becomes Canada’s New PM—But How Long Will He Last?

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Commonwealth_ Mark Carney is set to become Canada’s 24th prime minister within hours, assuming leadership at a crucial time as the country faces economic and diplomatic tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump. The former governor of the Bank of Canada will be sworn in at Rideau Hall in Ottawa by Governor General Mary Simon at 11 a.m. ET. Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will first meet with Simon to formally resign and recommend Carney to form a new government. Following Carney’s swearing-in, his cabinet will take their oaths. Unlike Trudeau’s 37-member cabinet, Carney is expected to appoint a smaller team of 15 to 20 ministers, prioritizing economic stability and U.S.-Canada relations amid ongoing trade tensions and calls from Trump for Canada to integrate further with the U.S.

Some key cabinet positions have already been confirmed. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly will retain her role while also overseeing international development. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc will take over International Trade, focusing on the Canada-U.S. relationship, while Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne will transition to finance. LeBlanc will also continue as intergovernmental affairs minister. Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos and International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen will not be part of the new cabinet, according to sources. Defence Minister Bill Blair will remain in his position. Carney is reassigning Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, a strong advocate for the carbon tax. Carney has pledged to eliminate the consumer carbon tax, and Guilbeault will instead serve as Quebec lieutenant while managing a new portfolio covering biodiversity and Canadian heritage.

Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Gary Anandasangaree, who also oversees northern affairs, is set to become justice minister and attorney general while retaining his existing responsibilities. Several current ministers, including Justice Minister Arif Virani, Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge, and Health Minister Mark Holland, have announced they will not seek re-election. Carney’s tenure as prime minister may be brief, as an early election is widely expected. Sources suggest he could call a general election before Parliament resumes on March 24, which would set voting for late April or early May. The Liberals, who were trailing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by over 20 points when Trudeau announced his resignation in January, have seen an improvement in polling numbers recently.

One of the key questions surrounding Carney’s leadership is his lack of a seat in the House of Commons. He has not yet decided which riding he will contest as the Liberal candidate, according to sources close to him.

In his first official international engagement as prime minister, Carney is expected to travel to London and Paris next week. His leadership marks a new era for the Liberal Party, following Trudeau’s departure due to internal dissent and the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland from cabinet.

Carney’s expertise as a former central banker suggests a focus on economic stewardship, particularly in navigating trade relations with the U.S. and addressing domestic financial concerns. His administration will likely aim to stabilize the party’s standing ahead of a potential spring election while also tackling pressing economic and diplomatic challenges.

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