Mark Carney Just Promised $130B in Spending—Is Canada Ready for This Gamble?

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Commonwealth_ Liberal Leader Mark Carney has unveiled his party’s platform, outlining his vision for Canada’s future that includes $130 billion in new spending over the next four years. The plan, titled “Unite, Secure, Protect, Build,” commits to running federal deficits until at least the 2028-29 fiscal year, as the Liberals aim to bolster national security, health care, and economic resilience in the face of rising global uncertainties.

A key feature of the platform is more than $18 billion in additional defense spending, which is expected to put Canada on track to exceed its NATO spending target by 2030. This includes investments in new submarines, additional icebreakers for the Royal Canadian Navy, and the acquisition of Canadian-made airborne early warning and control aircraft. Carney’s government also promises to prioritize domestic contractors in defense procurement and establish “Buy Canadian” standards for federal infrastructure funding, maximizing the use of Canadian steel, aluminum, and forestry products.

The platform’s fiscal approach would see deficits grow well beyond current projections set by the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO). The PBO had forecasted a deficit of $46.8 billion for this year, representing 1.47% of Canada’s GDP, with a decline in the deficit-to-GDP ratio in the coming years. However, the new Liberal plan projects a significant increase in deficits:

2025-26: $62.3 billion (1.96% of GDP)

2026-27: $59.9 billion (1.83% of GDP)

2027-28: $54.8 billion (1.61% of GDP)

2028-29: $47.8 billion (1.35% of GDP)

Despite these figures, Carney emphasized that the Liberals would separate capital investments from operating expenses, aiming to balance the operating budget over three years by eliminating inefficiencies, cutting waste, and modernizing systems. By the end of the four-year mandate, the Liberals project a $222 million surplus in the operating budget.

In terms of economic policy, Carney’s platform estimates that the full plan will generate $500 billion in economic value over five years. As Canada braces for Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats, the platform highlights a $20 billion revenue projection from Canada’s tariff response, which the Liberals plan to use to support impacted businesses and workers. Trump’s name appears eight times in the platform, signaling the seriousness with which the Liberals are approaching trade risks.

The platform also pledges to protect Canada’s supply-managed agricultural sectors—such as dairy, poultry, and eggs—by excluding them from trade negotiations with the U.S. The goal is to safeguard Canadian jobs and maintain domestic food security. Health care is another major focus of Carney’s plan. The Liberals pledge to invest $5.4 billion over four years, including $4 billion for infrastructure such as new hospitals, clinics, and renovations to existing facilities. While health care is primarily under provincial jurisdiction, a Carney-led government promises to collaborate with provinces and territories to cost-share these investments.

To address growing demands in the health care sector, the Liberals propose adding thousands of doctors by expanding medical school and residency positions and constructing new medical schools. Additionally, the platform includes a commitment to streamlining credential recognition for internationally trained health professionals already living in Canada.

Other political parties are also revealing their platforms. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh released his fully costed platform in British Columbia, focusing on investments and social programs. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has yet to release his complete platform but introduced his “New Canada First Economic Action Plan” last week. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper publicly endorsed Poilievre, calling him his clear choice over Carney.

The Bloc Québécois, the first party to release its full platform, proposed that any future trade agreements should be subject to a vote in the House of Commons. This move, they argue, is essential given the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and the threat of future tariffs. As the federal election campaign unfolds, the contrasting visions presented by the major parties reflect deep divisions over how to prepare Canada for the economic and geopolitical challenges ahead.

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