New Zealand‘s population dynamics have undergone a significant shift in 2024, marked by a record number of departures and a substantial decline in net migration. Official statistics reveal that 128,700 individuals left the country last year, a considerable increase from the 101,585 departures recorded in 2023. This exodus is largely attributed to the nation’s high cost of living and a struggling economy, which have compelled many New Zealanders to seek opportunities elsewhere.
Concurrently, the number of arrivals has also decreased, contributing to the sharp drop in net migration. In 2024, 155,800 people immigrated to New Zealand, a 32% reduction compared to the previous year. Consequently, net immigration, which reached a peak of 135,600 in October 2023, fell to 27,100 by the end of 2024. Despite this overall decline, India remained the primary source of new migrants, with 27,100 Indian citizens arriving in New Zealand. Other significant countries of origin include New Zealand itself (returning citizens), China, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom, Fiji, Australia, and South Africa.
India’s consistent contribution to New Zealand’s immigration figures is noteworthy, often facilitated by student and work visa programs. However, the prevailing economic climate and evolving immigration policies are beginning to influence these migration patterns. Interestingly, Indian tourist arrivals in November 2024 surpassed pre-pandemic levels, reaching 129% of the November 2019 figures.
The outflow of New Zealand citizens constituted the largest group of departures in 2024, totaling 72,000. Other nationalities that recorded notable emigration numbers include China, India, the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
The New Zealand government has responded to these trends by implementing stricter entry requirements. The focus has shifted toward attracting skilled workers in specific industries while simultaneously curtailing lower-wage migration. This policy adjustment, coupled with the nation’s economic downturn, has significantly impacted migration flows.
The economic ramifications of these demographic shifts are considerable. New Zealand’s economy contracted by 2.1% in the six months leading up to September 2024, resulting in job losses and diminished wage growth. Businesses, grappling with escalating operational costs, have become hesitant to expand their workforce, with sectors like construction and retail experiencing particularly acute effects.
According to Mark Smith, a senior economist at ASB Bank in Auckland, the decline in net immigration has weakened several key pillars of the New Zealand economy. He noted that “weaker net immigration has eroded a key leg of support for the housing market, domestic demand and labour market capacity.” While a slowdown in population growth might alleviate pressure on the housing market, it also carries the risk of prolonging the ongoing economic recession.
The government’s current strategy centers on attracting skilled professionals to fill critical vacancies. However, the long-term impact of these policies and the potential stabilization of migration patterns in 2025 remain uncertain. The interplay between economic conditions, government policies, and individual decisions will ultimately shape New Zealand’s demographic landscape in the coming years. The government faces the challenge of balancing the need for skilled labor with the broader economic consequences of a shrinking population and addressing the underlying economic issues driving emigration.
