Africa (Commonwealth Union) _ The 2015 presidential election marked a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s history, with Muhammadu Buhari unseating then-President Goodluck Jonathan. At the time, Buhari’s widespread appeal in the North, especially among the underprivileged, solidified his position as the most popular politician in the country. His near-mythical status in the North made it nearly impossible for any other contender to defeat Jonathan.
However, Buhari’s eight-year tenure significantly eroded his once-revered image, exposing flaws in his leadership. While some may argue he made gains in wealth or stature, his governance left many questioning whether Nigeria was better off than a decade ago. His presidency, criticized for dragging the country backwards, ironically casts him in a more favorable light when compared to the current administration of Bola Tinubu.
Tinubu’s presidency has been characterized by widespread disillusionment and perceived failures across governance metrics. Remarkably, Tinubu’s victory in 2023 was largely due to Northern support, while his Southwestern base showed lukewarm enthusiasm, resulting in significant losses in Lagos and Osun states. The question now looms: Can he replicate such support in 2027 given his declining performance?
The political calculus for 2027 points to a complex scenario. The North remains pivotal in determining the next president, while the South is eager to complete its eight-year cycle before power shifts back to the North in 2031. Expect Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) to support his re-election bid, potentially relying on strategies beyond mere popularity to secure victory. Yet, his administration’s struggles make a second term increasingly questionable.
Amid this backdrop, whispers of Goodluck Jonathan returning to the political stage have stirred hope among some quarters. His tenure, though criticized, saw notable efforts to promote equitable development across Nigeria, particularly in the North. Unlike Tinubu, Jonathan’s challenges stemmed from ethnic and religious biases rather than an outright failure of governance.
The North, which played a decisive role in Jonathan’s ousting, now holds the key to his potential resurgence. If Northern voters prioritize merit over religion and ethnicity, a coalition of support from the South-south, Southeast, and parts of the Southwest could pave the way for Jonathan’s return.
As Nigerians reflect on past electoral decisions, the global trend of correcting political missteps may inspire them to chart a new course in 2027. For many, the upcoming election represents a chance to rectify leadership errors and envision a future of genuine progress.
