A coalition of Syrian armed groups operating under the banner of Deterrence of Aggression captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, last week in a swift and coordinated attack, marking a significant escalation in Syria’s civil war, which had been largely dormant since President Bashar al-Assad regained control of Aleppo in 2016 with Russian military backing.
By Tuesday, they had advanced into the northern countryside of Hama, challenging the regime’s grip on central Syria. This coalition comprises Islamist factions united against Assad, ISIS, and Iran-backed militias.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former al Qaeda operative in Iraq who had previously led Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, until their 2016 split over ideological differences and opposition to ISIS, founded Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017, leading the coalition. The U.S. designated HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2018, citing concerns over its extremist roots, despite Jolani’s efforts to rebrand the group as a localized resistance force.
HTS has consolidated power in Idlib, a region that hosts 4 million displaced Syrians. According to Natasha Hall of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, HTS’s economic control in Idlib has strengthened its autonomy. HTS played a pivotal role in the Aleppo offensive, with Jolani leveraging his group’s resources and influence to spearhead the operation.
The Syrian National Army is another vital part of the coalition and operates as a Turkish-backed umbrella group. It encompasses factions such as Ahrar al-Sham, advocating for the establishment of an Islamic state under Sharia law. Despite its Islamist stance, Ahrar al-Sham’s leadership called for restraint following Aleppo’s capture. Deputy Commander Ahmed al-Dalati emphasized protecting all communities, including Christians and Armenians, and forbade looting or harm to civilians.
Turkey’s support for the SNA has raised concerns about its priorities. Analysts note that Turkish influence has shifted rebel focus away from Assad’s regime toward Kurdish-controlled areas. Ankara’s longstanding conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) drives this diversion, undermining the broader rebel cause, according to Hall.
As rebel groups advance, the Assad regime faces mounting pressure, and the region braces for further escalation in the war’s dynamics.
