Commonwealth_ A new study by FedEx predicts that parcel carriers in the UK will collectively handle 1.29 billion shipments between October and December 2024, reflecting a 10.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This surge represents the largest expected growth in parcel deliveries across Europe, with the UK leading in total shipments during the peak season. The study, conducted by Effigy Consulting, analyzed its courier, express, and parcels (CEP) database, comprising 500,000 data points on over 300 carriers across 41 countries. The findings highlight the growing demand for parcel services in the UK, driven by e-commerce and shifting consumer behaviors.
Peak deliveries in the UK are expected to rise from approximately 1.17 billion parcels during the 2023 peak season to nearly 1.3 billion this year. The UK’s share of total European deliveries during this period is forecasted to reach 21%, underscoring its significant role in the region’s logistics network. Following the UK are Germany, with an estimated 1.1 billion deliveries (a 10.8% increase), and France, with over 524.7 million shipments expected before the end of the year.
Alun Cornish, Operations Managing Director at FedEx, emphasized the importance of the peak season for UK businesses. “Peak season is a critical period for UK businesses, with many relying on transportation and logistics to meet increased demand and deliver for their customers,” Cornish noted. He highlighted the continued growth of online shopping and e-commerce, alongside a shift towards deferred services reflecting cost-conscious consumer behavior.
FedEx plans to scale its networks and leverage predictive technologies to address potential disruptions, ensuring that the “golden quarter” is a success. The company’s options for air and road transportation are designed to adapt to the anticipated demand surge.
Challenges during the Peak Season
When discussing the challenges faced by retailers and logistics companies, Cornish pointed to the significant increase in volumes during the peak season. For many e-commerce businesses, this period can account for up to 30% of their annual trading, making it a defining moment for their success. Cornish identified three distinct peaks within the broader season: Singles Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the general lead-up to Christmas. Each presents unique challenges for businesses. The first two peaks focus heavily on e-commerce, while the Christmas period sees a mix of business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) activities.
Despite the intense demand during Cyber Week, the volume typically stabilizes afterward, making it more manageable for logistics providers. However, the concentrated spikes in volume during these periods require meticulous planning and execution to avoid disruptions.
Reasons Behind the Growth
The study attributes the nearly 11% increase in UK parcel deliveries to a recovery at pre-pandemic levels. Cornish noted that, despite economic and geopolitical headwinds, there is renewed confidence in British businesses.
The UK’s strength in exports plays a pivotal role in this growth. While a significant portion of parcel volumes is domestic, approximately one-third of shipments are exported, reflecting the UK’s status as a major player in international trade. Cornish highlighted how many businesses are beginning to recognize export opportunities, often driven by online inquiries from international customers.
“For instance, I recently spoke to an apparel business that discovered 41% of their online inquiries came from outside the UK. This realization prompted them to explore export opportunities, showcasing the potential for UK businesses to expand globally,” Cornish explained.
FedEx’s expertise in cross-border shipments has been instrumental in supporting UK businesses. For 50 years, the company has specialized in facilitating international trade, helping businesses grow and thrive in competitive markets.
