By Daniel Hamilton
🇺🇸 With Joe Biden confirmed as the next President of the United States, it is worth examining in detail his foreign policy record, which is remarkable, to endeavour to draw some conclusions about what kind of President he will be on the world stage and how he may differ from Trump. Some thoughts from me…
Before looking at specifics, it is the length of Biden’s record that is most striking. He first joined the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee in 1973 when Mao was still Chinese premier and the US recognised Taiwan and not China! Brandt was West German Chancellor, in a divided walled Germany. Tito ruled Yugoslavia and Brezhnev was USSR President.
The foreign policy universe he cut his teeth in was very much still framed by the carnage of the post-World War Two order. The world was far removed from the less clear threats we see today from organised terrorist groups and non-state actors like ISIS. Asian and African countries recently independent were total economic minnows then.
Biden was a senior member of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee throughout the collapse of the USSR, reunification of Germany and Yugoslavian conflicts. He has genuine skin in the game here.
President Obama, Biden’s boss for 8 years, was never much interested in Europe. His big focus was strengthening US ties with Asia. Therefore it is hard to see now a Biden-led US prioritising Europe over other regions; but his decades-long relationships and record will naturally mean he will have a far more emotional, personal focus on flashpoints like Kosovo, Bosnia and Ukraine than the outgoing administration or Obama.
Curiously, this doesn’t appear to extend to any great interest in the UK except to Biden’s Irish roots. Sure, he is a fan of the NATO tie, but sees no upside to Brexit from a US perspective; going so far as to say a Brexit that threatens the Northern Irish Peace settlement would be totally unacceptable. He will not prioritise a free trade deal in the same way Trump has claimed to (although there has, notably, been no real progress on the issue to date). Biden is closer in sympathies to Dublin’s views than London’s. That said, a free trade deal with the UK is an easy win for any US President and this remains very much on the table.
Biden has always been a big supporter of institutions – be it NATO, WTO, EU etc. Power blocks have, according to his political vision, led to collective action and pressure for positive change. In contrast to Trump, I expect a Biden presidency to recommit to multilateralism.
Russia should be concerned about an incoming Biden administration. Under Obama, he was one of the leading forces behind the implementation of sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Crimea and is sharply critical of their operations in Syria. Trump is reluctant on sanctions; Biden’s a cheerleader.
In this context it is worth looking at how Biden approached the USSR as a Senator. He was hugely critical of human rights abuses but also quietly worked for USSR-US deal on nuclear weapon controls as far back as 1979. He appears willing to negotiate – but by extracting a price. Trump appeared to ask for less up-front, though claiming to be the master of the “Deal”, when in fact Trump’s deal making was abysmal, as for example giving away for nothing the only thing the North Koreans ever wanted for 70 years and refused by succesive US Presidents – a face to face meeting – which Trump gave away leaving the North Koreans even now making missiles that continue to threaten the USA.
One should expect to see the US reengaging with Iran on a nuclear deal framework. It fits with his multilateral approach to work collectively with EU, UK, China and Russia on this and to seek deescalation of tensions. He has, interestingly, backed humanitarian easing of existing sanctions due to C19.
Biden has generally been a free trader and has opposed most tariffs. He backed Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership and voted for NAFTA and China’s WTO accession. It will be interesting to see how his formal platform reconciles this with growing public sentiment towards protectionism.
Biden’s China policy is confusing. He accepts the need to trade and opposed Trump’s tariffs yet is sharply critical of Chinese IP infringements and state subsidies that harm US competitiveness. He has yet to articulate a clear policy since the C19 outbreak, yet has described President Xi as a “thug” in the past. This will be an interesting area to watch.
Under a Biden presidency, one can expect a big multilateral commitment on climate change issues. Has already announced intention to return to the 2015 Paris Agreement and would likely play a key role at the postponed COP2021. Arguably this is one of his biggest dividing lines with Trump’s approach.
A noticeable area of agreement between Biden and Trump seems to be a shared scepticism of neoliberalism / “regime change”. While Biden voted for early stages of the Iraq war, he shares Trump’s scepticism of military interventions. Under Biden, troops on ground in Syria or Iran is very unlikely.
Expect a Biden presidency to also represent continuity re: Israel. He is a long-standing champion of US military/financial aid to Israel and backs keeping the US Embassy in Jerusalem. One nuance: he openly speaks of a “two-state solution”, whereas Trump equivocated on the issue.
In Latin America, there are prospects of both continuity and change from Trump’s positions. Like Trump, Biden publicly backed Guaido over Maduro in Venezuela and wants closer Brazil ties. Biden will likely seek to restart US-Cuba talks on a reset in relations and economic ties.
To my mind, Biden is markedly to the right of most in his party on broad foreign policy issues. Putting aside appeal of his populist economic message to the Democratic base, I suspect this partly explains why Bernie Sanders performed strongly in the primaries. Saudi Arabia provides Biden an opportunity to satisfy a sceptical Democratic base where Biden has long been vocal in his criticism of the Saudis, publicly labelling them “pariahs” re: the Khashoggi murder – a departure from Trump and Obama rhetoric. All US presidents tend to quickly bow to the Al Sauds. Will he too? I doubt it. Mohammed bin Salman should look out. There is change in the air with Biden.
So, in conclusion: the biggest shift one we will likely see under a Biden presidency is a move away from Trump’s unilateralism and recommitment to projecting US power in multilateral structures, whether that be NATO, COP or P5+1. We now await the specifics!
(Daniel Hamilton is Managing Director at FTI Consulting)
