Starmer’s Big Gamble – Will UK’s Ukraine Peace Plan Backfire?

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((Commonwealth_Europe) Senior military leaders from the “coalition of the willing,” a group of nations gathering to discuss plans for establishing a Western-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine, will convene in the UK this Thursday for a significant meeting. Over 20 countries are expected to participate in the closed-door discussions, marking an important step in international efforts to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will attend the meeting later in the afternoon, following an earlier engagement in Barrow, where he will lay the keel of the HMS Dreadnought, one of the UK’s next-generation nuclear-armed submarines.

The peacekeeping force, primarily led by Britain and France, is transitioning from a conceptual phase to one focused on operational planning. At the Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, senior military officers from the coalition nations will convene to strategize on how this force will function on the ground. The primary aim of the force is to provide Ukraine with the necessary support to secure a lasting peace, stabilize the region, and facilitate the rebuilding of Ukraine’s military and defense capabilities.

While the coalition’s objectives are clear, challenges remain, especially regarding how to navigate Russia’s opposition. Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia would not tolerate the presence of any NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, regardless of their role. This stance complicates the situation, as NATO membership is a significant part of the West’s security architecture. Furthermore, the United States, a key player in the coalition, has shown reluctance to provide the necessary air cover that some countries in the coalition feel is essential for the success of such a mission.

In parallel to the peacekeeping discussions, Prime Minister Starmer is also highlighting the importance of the UK’s nuclear deterrent. During his visit to Barrow, he is expected to emphasize that the UK’s defense capabilities, including its nuclear arsenal, serve as a critical element of national and international security. Starmer is set to announce that the King has agreed to grant Barrow the prestigious title of “Royal” in recognition of the town’s long-standing contributions to national security, particularly about the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

The prime minister, alongside Defence Secretary John Healey, underscored the UK’s unwavering commitment to its nuclear arsenal. Healey reaffirmed that the UK’s nuclear deterrent remains “the ultimate guarantor” of the country’s security, as well as the security of its NATO allies. Both leaders emphasized that the credibility of the UK’s nuclear capabilities is a significant factor in ensuring that adversaries, such as Russia, recognize the UK’s resolve in upholding its national defense and international commitments.

While the plans for a peacekeeping force are advancing, the situation remains complex, with geopolitical tensions and military logistics presenting significant hurdles. Many EU lawmakers criticized moves to prioritize war over diplomacy, and Hungary has recently stated that it will not give its backing for more military aid to Ukraine. This makes the Russia-US peace talks even more significant, with much of the world wanting to see an end to the war.

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