Commonwealth_ Tropical Storm Rafael, which formed on Sunday as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, has moved past western Jamaica and is on its way to the Cayman Islands. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Rafael was located approximately 45 to 50 miles southeast of the Cayman Islands as of a 4 p.m. update on Tuesday, generating winds of 70 mph. NHC Director Michael Brennan indicated in a video briefing that the storm would likely reach hurricane strength as it passed over the islands later in the evening.
When sustained winds reach at least 74 mph, they confirm the hurricane status and initiate Category 1 strength. If Rafael’s winds increase to 96 mph or higher, it would escalate to Category 2, defined by damaging winds. The storm was moving northwest at 15 mph as of the latest update, and forecasters noted that it was becoming increasingly organized. The NHC also predicted a “steady to rapid intensification” of the system in the next 24 to 36 hours. By late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, Rafael could reach Category 2 strength as it approaches Cuba.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and the 11th hurricane, if it intensifies further. The official season runs through November 30, with the peak of activity typically occurring around September 10. Forecasters caution that it is still too early to predict the storm’s precise path and intensity upon reaching the U.S., despite its expected impact on the Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm has prompted several warnings in the region. The Cuban government has upgraded all areas previously under hurricane watches to hurricane warnings, including Havana, and issued a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands. Within 36 hours, the region is likely to experience hurricane conditions, potentially bringing dangerous winds and heavy rains.
Forecasts predict significant rainfall from Rafael, with 3 to 6 inches expected across much of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Some areas, particularly in Jamaica, could see up to 10 inches of rain, raising concerns about flooding and mudslides. In addition to heavy rain, the storm is also expected to generate storm surge, with up to 3 feet of surge predicted for the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. This could cause coastal flooding, especially in low-lying areas.
The U.S. is also bracing for potential impacts from Rafael. On Monday, forecasters issued a tropical storm watch for the lower and middle Florida Keys, and upgraded it to a tropical storm warning on Tuesday for the Dry Tortugas. Forecasters warned that tornadoes could also develop in the southwest corner of Florida, particularly in the Keys, starting Wednesday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Tropical storm-force winds could begin affecting the Florida Keys and parts of southern Florida by Wednesday afternoon.
As Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast later in the week, it is expected to weaken. While it could still bring tropical storm-force winds to the region, the storm is anticipated to lose some of its intensity as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are around 76 degrees Fahrenheit, too cool to sustain a strong hurricane. Hurricanes typically require water temperatures of at least 80 degrees to maintain their strength, and the cooler waters in the Gulf are expected to lead to rapid weakening. Brennan noted that the storm could slow down and weaken significantly, turning into a decaying system over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
